As the United States tightens its pressure campaign to isolate Russia economically, two of the world’s largest oil importers — India and China — are sending a clear message: they won’t be told what to do. In an unfolding episode of geopolitical defiance, both nations have rebuffed calls from the Trump administration to curb purchases of Russian oil, choosing energy security and national interest over American demands.
What began as a sanctions warning has now snowballed into a larger strategic confrontation. With former President Donald Trump returning to the White House and threatening tariffs of up to 100% — and a bipartisan bill proposing tariffs of up to 500% on imports from nations still trading with Russia — the pressure is intense. But so is the resistance.
India and China Respond — In Their Own Ways
While not acting in coordination and still very much rivals, India and China have adopted parallel stances: firm, unapologetic, and sovereign.
China, following trade talks with US officials in Stockholm, made its posture unmistakably clear. “Coercion and pressuring will not achieve anything,” said its foreign ministry on X, stating that energy decisions will be guided strictly by national interest.
US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent acknowledged the impasse, saying, “The Chinese take their sovereignty very seriously… they would like to pay a 100% tariff,” in what many analysts saw as a rhetorical deadlock.
India’s tone is more restrained but no less resolute. At a rally in Uttar Pradesh, Prime Minister Narendra Modi underscored India’s economic self-reliance: “We will buy those things which have been made by the sweat of an Indian.” The government has issued no policy change, and oil purchases from Russia continue uninterrupted.
Foreign Ministry spokesperson Randhir Jaiswal, when asked about American pressure, stated, “Our bilateral relationships with various countries stand on their own merit and should not be seen from the prism of a third country.”
Sanctions, Threats, and the Oil Math
The Biden and now Trump administrations have been alarmed by the steady rise of Russian oil shipments to India and China. In April 2025, China imported over 1.3 million barrels per day from Russia — a 20% surge. India, meanwhile, has become Russia’s largest oil customer, buying up to 2 million barrels per day — around 35% of its crude needs.
The proposed Sanctioning Russia Act of 2025, introduced by Senators Lindsey Graham and Richard Blumenthal with over 80 co-sponsors, threatens 500% tariffs on imports from countries buying Russian fossil fuels and not supporting Ukraine.
Trump has also taken direct aim at India, accusing it of buying cheap Russian oil and selling it for profit on the global market. “They don’t care how many people in Ukraine are being killed by the Russian War Machine,” he said, announcing plans to raise tariffs on Indian goods.
Russia’s Oil Strategy and the Global Market
Despite Western sanctions, Russia has kept oil exports flowing, aided by buyers in Asia. While prices have dropped and revenues are declining — June oil and gas revenues fell 33.7% year-on-year — India, China, and other nations continue to buy, cushioning Moscow’s economy.
India alone accounts for 70% of Russia’s exports of Urals-grade crude. Even if India wanted to stop, replacing the volume and quality of Russian crude wouldn’t be easy. “Indian refiners will still struggle to replace the heavy quality of Russian crude,” said Neil Crosby of Sparta Commodities.
JP Morgan estimates that Russia could redirect only around 800,000 barrels per day to alternate markets — far short of what it risks losing if India or China bow out.
The Wildcard: CPC Pipeline
A hidden but critical piece in this puzzle is the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC), which transports oil through Russia on behalf of Western majors like Exxon, Shell, Chevron, and TotalEnergies. If Russia cuts this pipeline, global markets could lose an additional 1 million barrels per day. Add that to any halt in Indian imports, and the market could lose 3.5 million barrels daily — over 3.5% of global supply — triggering price shocks.
BRICS and the Bigger Picture
This standoff comes amid growing efforts by the BRICS bloc — now including Iran, UAE, Egypt, and Ethiopia — to push back against Western dominance. Recent summits have openly criticized unilateral trade sanctions and emphasized developing independent financial systems.
Trump has branded the bloc “basically anti-US,” saying, “It’s an attack on the dollar, and we’re not going to let anybody attack the dollar.”
BRICS initiatives like BRICS Pay and the New Development Bank are part of this larger goal to bypass dollar dominance and SWIFT systems. The July 2025 summit in Rio launched the New Investment Platform (NIP) to deepen financial ties among members.
Not Allies, But Aligned
India and China may remain geopolitical competitors with tense borders and conflicting visions for Asia, but at this moment, their interests align. Both want affordable energy, strategic autonomy, and freedom from Western pressure. And both are signaling they’re willing to bear the cost.
Trump’s combative style may be accelerating this unlikely convergence. His comments that India and Russia can “take their dead economies down together” may be inflammatory, but they underline the seriousness with which the US views this emerging resistance.
This is not a formal alliance. There’s no treaty. But for now, two of the world’s biggest economies are standing their ground — not together, but side by side — and reshaping global energy politics in the process.
