The India-US relationship, once buoyed by the landmark 2005 civil nuclear agreement, is facing its sharpest downturn in years as US President Donald Trump’s aggressive trade policies and overtures to Pakistan unsettle New Delhi. What had evolved into a broad-based strategic partnership — encompassing next-generation defence and technology cooperation, energy ties, and a shared Indo-Pacific vision — now risks being undermined by a trust deficit.
From Strategic Convergence to Tariff Trouble
In recent years, Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Trump’s predecessor, Joe Biden, had laid the groundwork for an expanded partnership through the Initiative on Critical and Emerging Technology — now rebranded under Trump as TRUST. This was set to deepen cooperation in defence manufacturing, space, AI, semiconductors, and clean energy. But Trump’s coercive trade stance, including tariff hikes on Indian goods, has jeopardised that trajectory. Diplomatic sources suggest the deadlock is severe enough to threaten the early November Quad summit in India, with Trump unlikely to attend unless trade disputes are resolved.
Quad’s Uncertain Future
India, which balances ties with both the Quad and the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation, views the Quad as central to maintaining a free and open Indo-Pacific. Any US downgrading of the grouping, especially if Trump seeks a trade breakthrough with China, could weaken Washington’s policy of supporting India as a strategic counterweight to Beijing. Officials warn that if the Quad summit falls through, it would deal a significant blow to the four democracies’ regional agenda.
Pakistan Factor Rekindles Old Frictions
Trump’s courting of Pakistan, including Army Chief Gen. Asim Munir, has been another flashpoint. Reports indicate Trump aimed to broker a peace deal between India and Pakistan akin to his recent mediation between Armenia and Azerbaijan. Modi, however, declined to participate in a joint announcement, underscoring India’s longstanding position that bilateral issues with Pakistan are resolved without third-party mediation. The Indian government’s June readout of Modi-Trump talks — stressing that a ceasefire was negotiated solely at the DGMO level with no US involvement — further irked the White House.
While the US designation of The Resistance Front as a Foreign Terrorist Organisation aligns with India’s counterterrorism priorities, Trump’s public praise of Pakistan’s role in combating terrorism raises concerns in New Delhi. Indian officials are expected to remind Washington of Trump’s earlier warnings about Pakistan’s record of “gaming” US leaders on the issue.
H-1B Visa Flashpoint Looms
Immigration could become another sore point. Senior Trump aide Stephen Miller recently accused India of “cheating on immigration,” foreshadowing an overhaul of the H-1B visa programme. Indian nationals account for over 70% of such visas, critical for the country’s IT and healthcare sectors. Any tightening of rules could trigger a new diplomatic dispute, especially amid US tech layoffs and rising unemployment that strengthen protectionist sentiment.
Salvaging the Partnership
Diplomats say a limited trade agreement that safeguards core strategic interests, alongside possible breakthroughs such as a Trump-Putin peace deal in Ukraine, might stabilise ties. However, both sides will need to manage domestic political pressures and avoid missteps that deepen mistrust. With the Quad summit in jeopardy, counterterrorism cooperation at risk, and the H-1B debate heating up, Indian diplomacy faces one of its most complex balancing acts in years.
